UNH

UnitedHealth Group IncCrowded & expensive

$378.58+6.68 ▲ +1.80%Oct 5, 4:00 PM ET

Options Paper trade

Target price$205.72by DDM45.7% below the price

Crowd score77/100Crowd-driven · 1 confirming

Sentiment0.00FinBERT, −1 to +1

Mentions · 24h0▲ +0% vs 7-day avg

Price × crowd

━ Price┅ Target price● Mention spike· Sample history

1M 3M 1Y 5Y

Why this score

1 sources

Each part compares today with this ticker's own last 60 trading days. The centre line is normal.

Attention 35%+2.7σ
Opinion 35%no data yet—
Breadth 15%no data yet—
Momentum 15%+2.6σ

Wikipedia +2.7σ

Sources confirming: 1
Driven by: The crowd (no big news)

Herd behaviour

score, last year

Fades in0.8 daysBursts of attention halve quickly: fads come and go.

Talk vs priceloud, not movingLots of talk, little price move: the crowd hasn't moved the stock (yet).

Streak1 dayTrading days in a row at a score of 60 or more.

What the crowd is saying

24h

No narratives for UNH yet. They come from what people post (Bluesky, Hacker News, and Reddit once connected).

All narratives on Crowd →

Valuation

drag to change

Target priceDDM$205.7245.7% below today's price of $378.58

FILINGS TO 2026-06-30

Dividend discount model. Banks and insurers are valued on dividends: their debt is raw material, not financing, so free cash flow doesn't mean the same thing.

Dividend growth, year 19.15%

Fades to terminal growth by year 10 · starts at 9.15%

Cost of equity8.39%

What shareholders demand each year · starts at 8.39%

Terminal growth2.50%

Forever, after year 10 · starts at 2.50%

How the value adds up

Dividend per share, last 12 months$8.95

10 years of dividends, today's value$83.31

+Every dividend after year 10$122.40

Per share$205.72

60% of the value comes after year 10.

If the rates were different

Ke ↓ g →	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.4%	213	229	249	274	304
7.9%	196	209	225	245	269
8.4%	181	192	206	222	241
8.9%	168	178	189	202	218
9.4%	157	165	175	186	199

Rows: cost of equity. Columns: terminal growth. Centre = your settings. Green = above today's price.

The 10-year projection

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Growth	9.2%	8.4%	7.7%	6.9%	6.2%	5.5%	4.7%	4.0%	3.2%	2.5%
Dividend	$9.77	$10.59	$11.40	$12.20	$12.95	$13.66	$14.30	$14.87	$15.35	$15.74
Worth today	$9.01	$9.02	$8.96	$8.84	$8.66	$8.42	$8.14	$7.81	$7.44	$7.03

Where the starting numbers come from

Dividend per share (declared dividends per share): $8.95
Dividend growth, last 5 years: 12.6%
Return on equity: 13.5%
Payout (dividend ÷ earnings): 58%
Sustainable growth = ROE × (1 − payout): 5.7%
Risk-free rate: 5.28%
Beta (Finnhub, adjusted toward 1): 0.69
Stock premium over Treasuries: 4.5%

A share is worth the dividends it will pay, discounted at what shareholders demand. Growth starts at the average of the 5-year dividend growth and the sustainable rate (return on equity × share of earnings kept). It ignores share buybacks, so it undervalues companies that return cash mostly by buying back stock.

SEC EDGAR XBRL · Risk-free: 10-year Treasury, 2026-10-02 · Beta: Finnhub, adjusted toward 1 · debt_current not reported on the latest balance sheet; treated as 0

Key stats

Market cap$333.8B

P/E (TTM)23.6

Gross margin—

Operating margin4.7%

52-week range$255.97 – $461.62

Avg volume (10 days)4.3M

Beta0.54

From Finnhub, updated a few times a day.