NVAX

Novavax Inc

$12.56+2.10 ▲ +20.08%Oct 5, 4:00 PM ET

Options Paper trade

Target price—Cash flow is negative

Crowd score46/100Crowd-driven · 0 confirming

Sentiment0.00FinBERT, −1 to +1

Mentions · 24h0▲ +0% vs 7-day avg

Price × crowd

━ Price┅ Target price● Mention spike· Sample history

1M 3M 1Y 5Y

Why this score

1 sources

Each part compares today with this ticker's own last 60 trading days. The centre line is normal.

Attention 35%+1.6σ
Opinion 35%no data yet—
Breadth 15%no data yet—
Momentum 15%+0.6σ

Wikipedia +1.6σ

Sources confirming: 0
Driven by: The crowd (no big news)

Herd behaviour

score, last year

Fades in1.6 daysBursts of attention halve quickly: fads come and go.

Talk vs pricemove −0.2σToday's price move compared with the last 60 days.

StreaknoneTrading days in a row at a score of 60 or more.

What the crowd is saying

24h

No narratives for NVAX yet. They come from what people post (Bluesky, Hacker News, and Reddit once connected).

All narratives on Crowd →

Valuation

drag to change

Target priceDCF—No positive value at these assumptions.

FILINGS TO 2026-06-30

Discounted cash flow. Valued on free cash flow: what the business generates for everyone who funds it.Free cash flow is negative, so a DCF can't give a value yet. Drag the margin to see what it would take.

Revenue growth, year 123.7%

Fades to terminal growth by year 10 · starts at 23.73%

Free-cash-flow margin-18.0%

Share of revenue left as cash · starts at -17.97%

Discount rate (WACC)13.9%

What all investors demand each year · starts at 13.90%

Terminal growth2.50%

Forever, after year 10 · starts at 2.50%

How the value adds up

10 years of free cash flow, today's value−$846M

+Everything after year 10−$613M

Business value (EV)−$1.5B

+Cash and investments$719M

−Debt and minority interests$291M

Owners' value−$1.0B

÷Shares0.16B

Per share—

If the rates were different

WACC ↓ g →	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
12.9%	-7	-7	-7	-8	-8
13.4%	-6	-6	-7	-7	-7
13.9%	-6	-6	-6	-7	-7
14.4%	-5	-6	-6	-6	-6
14.9%	-5	-5	-5	-6	-6

Rows: WACC. Columns: terminal growth. Centre = your settings. Green = above today's price.

The 10-year projection

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Growth	23.7%	21.4%	19.0%	16.7%	14.3%	11.9%	9.6%	7.2%	4.9%	2.5%
Revenue	$512M	$621M	$740M	$863M	$986M	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.4B
Free cash flow	−$92M	−$112M	−$133M	−$155M	−$177M	−$198M	−$217M	−$233M	−$244M	−$250M
Worth today	−$81M	−$86M	−$90M	−$92M	−$92M	−$91M	−$87M	−$82M	−$76M	−$68M

Where the starting numbers come from

Revenue, last 12 months: $414M
Revenue growth: 3-yr avg / last yr: -17.2% / 64.7%
FCF margin: last 12 mo / 3-yr median: -12.6% / -23.4%
Risk-free rate: 5.28%
Beta (Finnhub, adjusted toward 1): 2.21
Stock premium over Treasuries: 4.5%
Cost of equity = rf + β × premium: 15.2%
Cost of debt (before tax): 7.5%
Tax rate: 21.0%
Equity share of funding: 86%

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending − stock-based pay + after-tax interest. Growth starts at the average of the 3-year and last-year rates; the margin is the average of the last 12 months and the 3-year median.

SEC EDGAR XBRL · Risk-free: 10-year Treasury, 2026-10-02 · Beta: Finnhub, adjusted toward 1 · debt_short not reported on the latest balance sheet; treated as 0

Key stats

Market cap$1.7B

P/E (TTM)—

Gross margin79.2%

Operating margin-63.5%

52-week range$6.20 – $11.97

Avg volume (10 days)4.8M

Beta2.81

From Finnhub, updated a few times a day.