$221.56+9.56 ▲ +4.51%Oct 5, 4:00 PM ET
Target price$183.71by DCF17.1% below the price
Crowd score32/100Crowd-driven · 0 confirming
Sentiment0.00FinBERT, −1 to +1
Mentions · 24h0▲ +0% vs 7-day avg
Price × crowd
━ Price┅ Target price● Mention spike· Sample history
Why this score
2 sources
Each part compares today with this ticker's own last 60 trading days. The centre line is normal.
- Attention 35%+0.7σ
- Opinion 35%no data yet—
- Breadth 15%no data yet—
- Momentum 15%+0.9σ
Wikipedia +0.7σHeadlines −0.9σ
- Sources confirming
- 0
- Driven by
- The crowd (no big news)
Herd behaviour
score, last year
Hype gap+1.5σCrowd and news are roughly in step.
Fades in1.7 daysBursts of attention halve quickly: fads come and go.
Talk vs pricemove −1.0σToday's price move compared with the last 60 days.
StreaknoneTrading days in a row at a score of 60 or more.
What the crowd is saying
24h
No narratives for ADSK yet. They come from what people post (Bluesky, Hacker News, and Reddit once connected).
All narratives on Crowd →Valuation
drag to change
Target priceDCF$183.7117.1% below today's price of $221.56
FILINGS TO 2026-07-31
Discounted cash flow. Valued on free cash flow: what the business generates for everyone who funds it.
15.2%
Fades to terminal growth by year 10 · starts at 15.23%
21.8%
Share of revenue left as cash · starts at 21.77%
10.2%
What all investors demand each year · starts at 10.19%
2.50%
Forever, after year 10 · starts at 2.50%
How the value adds up
10 years of free cash flow, today's value$17.6B
+Everything after year 10$19.9B
Business value (EV)$37.5B
+Cash and investments$4.4B
−Debt and minority interests$3.5B
Owners' value$38.4B
÷Shares0.21B
Per share$183.71
53% of the value comes after year 10.If the rates were different
Rows: WACC. Columns: terminal growth. Centre = your settings. Green = above today's price.
| WACC ↓ g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 190 | 200 | 213 | 227 | 243 |
| 9.7% | 178 | 187 | 197 | 209 | 223 |
| 10.2% | 167 | 175 | 184 | 194 | 206 |
| 10.7% | 157 | 164 | 172 | 181 | 191 |
| 11.2% | 149 | 155 | 162 | 169 | 178 |
The 10-year projection
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 15.2% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | $9.0B | $10.2B | $11.5B | $12.7B | $14.0B | $15.1B | $16.1B | $17.0B | $17.6B | $18.1B |
| Free cash flow | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.8B | $3.9B |
| Worth today | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.5B |
Where the starting numbers come from
- Revenue, last 12 months
- $7.8B
- Revenue growth: 3-yr avg / last yr
- 12.9% / 17.5%
- FCF margin: last 12 mo / 3-yr median
- 28.2% / 15.3%
- Risk-free rate
- 5.28%
- Beta (Finnhub, adjusted toward 1)
- 1.19
- Stock premium over Treasuries
- 4.5%
- Cost of equity = rf + β × premium
- 10.6%
- Cost of debt (before tax)
- 5.8%
- Tax rate
- 22.0%
- Equity share of funding
- 93%
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending − stock-based pay + after-tax interest. Growth starts at the average of the 3-year and last-year rates; the margin is the average of the last 12 months and the 3-year median.
SEC EDGAR XBRL · Risk-free: 10-year Treasury, 2026-10-02 · Beta: Finnhub, adjusted toward 1
Key stats
Market cap$44.3B
P/E (TTM)27.0
Gross margin91.3%
Operating margin26.2%
52-week range$185.50 – $326.20
Avg volume (10 days)1.9M
Beta1.28
From Finnhub, updated a few times a day.