ARM
Arm Holdings PLC$302.90-4.59 ▼ -1.49%Oct 5, 4:00 PM ET
Target price—Cash flow is negative
Crowd score32/100Crowd-driven · 0 confirming
Sentiment+0.06FinBERT, −1 to +1
Mentions · 24h20▲ +723.5% vs 7-day avg
Price × crowd
━ Price┅ Target price● Mention spike· Sample history
Why this score
2 sources
Each part compares today with this ticker's own last 60 trading days. The centre line is normal.
- Attention 35%+0.7σ
- Opinion 35%no data yet—
- Breadth 15%no data yet—
- Momentum 15%+0.7σ
Wikipedia +0.7σHeadlines +0.3σ
- Sources confirming
- 0
- Driven by
- The crowd (no big news)
- Consensus
- 100% one side
Herd behaviour
score, last year
Hype gap+0.5σCrowd and news are roughly in step.
Fades in2.3 daysBursts of attention halve quickly: fads come and go.
Talk vs pricemove +0.8σToday's price move compared with the last 60 days.
StreaknoneTrading days in a row at a score of 60 or more.
What the crowd is saying
24h
- Later+0.0367% of mentions
Valuation
drag to change
Target priceDCF$2.2399.3% below today's price of $302.90
FILINGS TO 2026-03-31
Discounted cash flow. Valued on free cash flow: what the business generates for everyone who funds it.Free cash flow is negative, so a DCF can't give a value yet. Drag the margin to see what it would take.
22.6%
Fades to terminal growth by year 10 · starts at 22.62%
-1.48%
Share of revenue left as cash · starts at -1.48%
15.0%
What all investors demand each year · starts at 15.00%
2.50%
Forever, after year 10 · starts at 2.50%
How the value adds up
10 years of free cash flow, today's value−$763M
+Everything after year 10−$475M
Business value (EV)−$1.2B
+Cash and investments$3.6B
−Debt and minority interests$0.00
Owners' value$2.4B
÷Shares1.06B
Per share$2.23
If the rates were different
Rows: WACC. Columns: terminal growth. Centre = your settings. Green = above today's price.
| WACC ↓ g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14.5% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15.5% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
The 10-year projection
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 22.6% | 20.4% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | $6.0B | $7.3B | $8.6B | $9.9B | $11.3B | $12.6B | $13.8B | $14.7B | $15.4B | $15.8B |
| Free cash flow | −$90M | −$108M | −$127M | −$148M | −$168M | −$187M | −$204M | −$218M | −$229M | −$234M |
| Worth today | −$78M | −$81M | −$84M | −$84M | −$83M | −$81M | −$77M | −$71M | −$65M | −$58M |
Where the starting numbers come from
- Revenue, last 12 months
- $4.9B
- Revenue growth: 3-yr avg / last yr
- 22.5% / 22.8%
- FCF margin: last 12 mo / 3-yr median
- -1.5% / -1.5%
- Risk-free rate
- 5.28%
- Beta (Finnhub, adjusted toward 1)
- 2.50
- Stock premium over Treasuries
- 4.5%
- Cost of equity = rf + β × premium
- 16.5%
- Cost of debt (before tax)
- 6.8%
- Tax rate
- 21.9%
- Equity share of funding
- 100%
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending − stock-based pay + after-tax interest. Growth starts at the average of the 3-year and last-year rates; the margin is the average of the last 12 months and the 3-year median.
SEC EDGAR XBRL · Risk-free: 10-year Treasury, 2026-10-02 · Beta: Finnhub, adjusted toward 1
Key stats
Market cap$312.2B
P/E (TTM)299.1
Gross margin97.5%
Operating margin17.0%
52-week range$100.02 – $452.70
Avg volume (10 days)7.2M
Beta3.79
From Finnhub, updated a few times a day.